Commissioned study, Enterprise · Health economics
ELFBAR: What tobacco harm reduction means for Germany's health system
Situation
ELFBAR, one of the world's largest providers of alternative nicotine products, needed robust evidence on the health and economic effect of smokers in Germany switching to less harmful products. A question where every number gets politically scrutinised.
Approach
Socio economic microsimulation of 200,000 synthetic individuals modelled on German demographics, smoking prevalence, disease risks and healthcare costs. Validated through expert interviews in pharmacology, addiction research and statutory health insurance, international benchmarks from the UK, Sweden and New Zealand, sensitivity analysis and academic quality assurance by IU International University.
Result
Savings in direct healthcare costs from 2026 to 2040: approx. €15bn pessimistic, €48bn realistic, €75bn optimistic. Plus measurable gains in quality adjusted life years and concrete policy recommendations. Report in German and English.


